A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
